Media Contact: Javier Rojas, javier.rojas@csun.edu, (818) 677-2130
While a growing number of Latino voters shifted toward President Donald Trump this past election, in part due to economic and border security concerns, that does not necessarily tell the whole story, or mean they are abandoning the Democratic Party all together.
California State University, Northridge political science professor Jason Morín, whose research focuses on Latino voters, explained that Trump made in-roads with conservative Latino voters who prioritized the economy and border security and were resistant to Democrats’ messaging on cultural issues.
All of this led to 42 percent of Latino voters, which today accounts for about 15 percent of the total U.S. voting population, favoring Trump, an increase from his first presidential campaign in 2016 where he only captured 28 percent of the block’s votes and in 2020 when he captured 32 percent.
“Latinos are incredibly diverse as a population, they come from multiple national origin groups and are geographically diverse,” Morín said. “What that means politically is that Latinos have strategic political influence in presidential elections, in congressional races, and in local politics.
“Trump consolidated his base in this past election. He wasn’t winning hearts or minds and Democrats weren’t defecting from the Democratic party,” he continued. “In other words, he was gaining votes from Latinos who were already more likely to support Trump as opposed to influencing or swaying more Democrats or left leaning independents.”
Do the polls signal an ongoing rightward shift among Latinos and a departure from the Democratic Party? Morín said it is not that simple and more analysis is needed.
“Trump’s consolidation of conservative Latinos does not reflect the current U.S. narrative. Many media outlets look to exit polls as a barometer to gauge public opinion, but they have difficulty generalizing about smaller populations, including Latinos,” Morín said. “They don’t interview, for example, in different languages. The media also relies on the same research firm, which can have a major influence on the narrative about Latino voters.”
This voting trend, based on exit polls, came as a surprise to some political pundits, Morín said, as many spent weeks after the election dissecting reasons why Latinos might have shifted to the right. Many analysts tend to generalize about Latinos and dismiss the diversity within the community, he said.
“There’s a tendency to treat places like the Rio Grande Valley in Texas, and south Florida as a microcosm of something larger that is happening, like Latinos shifting right,” Morín said. “But the issue is that Latino opinion, including their policy preferences, vary by region, and by national origin. Cubans, for example, have more conservative attitudes towards policy compared to Mexicans living in Texas versus California. The opinions of Latinos in the Rio Grande Valley are certainly not representative of Latino’s opinion elsewhere.”
It is also too early to tell whether these voting trends are here to stay, Morín said, pointing out how unpredictable things went during Trump’s first term in office.
“I suspect if Trump continues to carry out mass deportation plans, even if they’re on a smaller scale, it may cause Latinos, including conservative Latinos, to organize and oppose Trump and the Republican Party,” Morín said. “But it’s still too early to tell.”
As the coverage of Latino voters continues to grow, Morín calls on media pundits and academics to expand on their understanding of national origin groups beyond Mexican, Cuban, and Puerto Rican. Even the category “Latino” is too broad and can neglect the community’s rich diversity, he added.
“In recent years, there’s been a significant increase in the number of immigrants from Central and South America,” Morín said. “It’s important that we have a better understanding of other national origin groups when it comes to U.S. politics.”
As the Latino population grows, Latino voters will continue to shape policy and have a major influence on future elections, another reason both political parties should be reaching out to Latinos more often, not just during election years, Morín said,
“Political parties should also improve their outreach to young Latino voters, an often-overlooked segment of the population. There’s a misconception about young voters not being interested in politics. Young Latino voters are interested in politics and they are interested in policy issues,” Morín said. “The key is to encourage them to take that next step and vote.
“I think that was a missed opportunity in this past election,” he continued. “Many didn’t turn out to vote, but voter outreach can serve as a remedy to reverse a pattern of lower voter turnout.”
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